Quality Starts

Braves at Cardinals: Pitch Derek Lowe & Pitch Chris Carpenter

A solid pitching match up tonight in St. Louis and I recommend starting both Lowe and Carpenter. Lowe’s 5.24 ERA is no laughing matter, however the Atlanta Heyward’s win contests that Lowe starts.

Indians at Angels: Pitch Mitch Tolbert & Ditch Joe Saunders

Tolbert is 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA this season against the Tigers, White Sox and Twins.  We may be on the cusp of a breakout season especially with Tolbert giving the business to strong offensive ball clubs.  If he silences the Angels tonight at home, snag him out of the abyss quickly because he will be active on another roster come sunrise.

Innings Eaters

Phillies at Giants:  Ditch Jamie Moyer & Ditch Todd Wellemyer

Padres at Marlins: Pitch Jon Garland & Pitch Anibal Sanchez

Diamondback at Rockies:  Pitch Edwin Jackson & Pitch Ubaldo Jimenez

Mariners at Royals:  Pitch Ian Snell & Pitch Zach Greinke

Pirates at Brewers:  Ditch Jeff Karstens & Pitch Randy Wolf

National at Cubs:  Pitch Livan Hernandez & Pitch Tom Gorzelanny

White Sox at Rangers:  Ditch Mark Buerhle & Pitch CJ Wilson

Dodgers at Mets:  Pitch Charlie Haeger & Pitch Oliver Perez

Red Sox at Blue Jays:  Pitch Clay Buchholz & Pitch Shaun Marcum

Twins at Tigers:  Pitch Francisco Liriano & Pitch Justin Verlander

Yankees at O’s:  Pitch Phil Hughes & Ditch Shaun Marcum

Jay Ferraro is the Executive Producer of Baseball Digest LIVE and Gotham Baseball LIVE.  He is also the Fantasy Editor for Baseballdigest.com as well as a columnist for Baseball Digest Magazine and Assignment Editor for Gothambaseball.com. You can reach him at Jay_Ferraro@Juno.com , follow him on Twitter , add him on Facebook and check out his Official Website.

The Yankees threatened against Ian Snell (5-2 since joining Seattle) in the 1st inning, putting two runners aboard with no one out.  But Snell retired Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, and Hideki Matsui to escape the jam and the Yankees offense flopped like a fish after that.  The Yankees would manage just five hits on the day, three of them byTeixeira.

Chamberlain retired the first two hitters of the game, but then gave up back to back doubles to Jose Lopez and Ken Griffey Jr., and an RBI single to Adrian Beltre for a 2-0 M’s lead.  Things went from bad to worse an inning later with Griffey punctuating the 5-run outburst with a 3-run home run.  It was Griffey’s 16th home run of the season, the same output as his 1989 rookie season, and 627th of his career.

Game Notes

On the bright side, Sergio Mitre tossed five innings of 1-hit ball in relief.

The Yankees begin a three game series tonight with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.  The AL East lead has been reduced to 5 1/2 games (ahead of Boston), but the magic number is just one to clinch a playoff spot.

The Trenton Thunder host tonight’s Eastern League All-Star game.  Thunder team members, and Yankees prospects, Jesus Montero, Zach McAllister, Mike Dunn, Josh Schmidt, Reegie Corona, Eduardo Nunez, and Jorge Vazquez will represent the Northern squad.   Trenton manager Tony Franklin will be at the helm of the North along with his coaching staff.

The Yankees begin a 10-game homestand beginning Thursday night with Detroit.  After 3 games with the Tigers, the Orioles come to town for 3 before the A’s finish the homestand with a 4-game set.  The Tigers series includes Old-Timer’s Day on Sunday, July 19.

When the Chien-Ming Wang’s spot in the rotation comes up, the Yankees will probably go with Sergio Mitre and move Al Aceves back to the pen.

The Yankees will also look elsewhere for a starting pitcher.  According to the NY Post, Pittsburgh’s Ian Snell is among those who have piqued the Yankees interest.  The Bombers are also looking into Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman.

1. May 3- Jeff Karstens leaves after 5 innings with the Reds up 5-0. Final score: Reds 5 Pirates 0.
2. May 4- Paul Maholm leaves after 7 1/3 innings with one runner on base and the Pirates up 3-1. Final score: Brewers 7 Pirates 4.
3. May 5- Ian Snell leaves after 5+ innings with runners on first and second and the Brewers up 3-2. Final score: Brewers 8 Pirates 5.
4. May 6- Zach Duke leaves after 5 1/3 innings with the bases loaded and the Cardinals up 4-2. Final score: Cardinals 4 Pirates 2.
5. May 7- Ross Ohlendorf leaves after 6 innings with the Cardinals up 5-2. Final score: Cardinals 5 Pirates 2.
6. May 8- Jeff Karstens leaves after 6 innings with the Pirates and Mets tied at 2. Final score: Mets 7 Pirates 3.
7. May 9- Paul Maholm leaves after 5 innings with the Pirates down 7-1. Final score: Mets 10 Pirates 1.
8. May 10- Ian Snell leaves after 6 innings with the Mets up 3-2. Final score: Mets 8 Pirates 4.

Sure, the starters have been rough, but in four of the eight games, the bullpen has taken a close game or a Pirate lead and turned it into an insurmountable deficit. Tyler Yates and John Grabow have been the chief culprits, but Evan Meek, Jesse Chavez, and Matt Capps have contributed as well.

So the offense is scoring three runs a night, the starting pitching is decent at best, and the bullpen is giving up a significant amount of runs every other night. This losing streak might not end at eight.

• Monday, 4/13- Zach Duke: 9 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB 5 K
• Friday, 4/17- Ian Snell: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
• Saturday, 4/18- Paul Maholm: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 2 K
• Monday, 4/20- Ross Ohlendorf: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K

In Snell, Mahom, and Ohlendorf’s start, the Bucs’ bullpen finished the games out with two scoreless innings, giving the Pirates four shutout wins in one and a half turns of the rotation (seven games).

The latest start in this stretch, Ohlendorf’s start on Monday, was particularly impressive. Snell and Maholm threw their gems against a Braves’ lineup missing Chipper Jones and Yunel Escobar, but Ohlendorf baffled the 11-1 Florida Marlins with an array of fastballs, sinkers, and changeups that kept the Marlins off balance all night. There will certainly be bumps in the road for Ohlendorf this season in the rotation, but on Monday night it was easy to see why he was one of the players targeted by Neal Huntington in the Xavier Nady trade last July.

The Pirates certainly won’t be able to keep this inhuman shutout streak going (at least I don’t think they will, I don’t see how it’s humanly possible), but the difference in the 2009 pitching staff under Joe Kerrigan is already obvious. While Duke has shown a real improvement in his stuff, Ohlendorf and Snell have pitched well this year because they’re working to their strength and pitching with a real game plan. The shutout streak won’t last, but the improvement in the rotation might.

The Braves are coming off a rough finish to their first homestand, ending up on the wrong end of a sweep at the hands of the first place Marlins. It was made worse when Jorge Campillo was placed on the 15-day DL with shoulder tendinitis and Yunel Escobar had to leave Thursday’s game early with a strained ab muscle.

Atlanta’s first opponent on the road trip is the Pirates, who sit at 4-5 after a series loss to the Astros this week. After a 7-0 win in the first game, the Pirates scored just four runs in the next two against Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz.

(2009 stats followed by career stats vs. opponent)
4/17 – 7:05
Jair Jurrjens (2-0, 2.45…1-1, 4.35 in 2 starts)
vs.
Paul Maholm (1-0, 1.32…0-1, 2.77 in 2 starts)

Jair Jurrjens cut down on his five walks from his first outing to three in his second, but he hasn’t recorded many strikeouts. He has managed to allow just three earned runs in two starts despite walking eight and striking out three. Paul Maholm has had two solid starts, allowing just two earned runs in 13.2 innings. He is developing into a frontline starter for the Pirates and they know it, signing him to a three-year extension this past offseason.

4/18 – 12:35
Jo-Jo Reyes
vs.
Ian Snell (0-2, 7.20…1-2, 4.31 in 6 starts, 7 total appearances)

Jo-Jo Reyes gets the start on Saturday afternoon in place of the injured Tom Glavine. He allowed four earned runs over six innings in his only start for Gwinnett this season. Ian Snell took a big step backward in his second start, allowing six runs in four innings against the Cardinals. He attributes it to a flu bug and is said to be better.

4/19 – 1:35
Javier Vazquez (0-1, 4.50…5-3, 4.96 in 13 starts)
vs.
Zach Duke (2-0, 0.59…2-2, 2.76 in 5 starts)

Sunday’s matchup is as equally intriguing as Friday’s. Javier Vazquez looks to go a little deeper into the game after two consecutive outings of six innings. He allowed three runs on five hits in both starts and both resulted in a Braves loss. Zach Duke has dominated in his first two starts, allowing just one earned run over 15.1 innings, including a complete game shutout against the Astros in his most recent.

Key Pirates Relievers:
Matt Capps (3 IP, 0.00, 2 SV…7 IP, 5 ER, 2 SV)
Craig Hansen (5.1 IP, 0.00)
John Grabow (4.1 IP, 0.00…14.2 IP, 6 ER)

Key Pirates Hitters:
Nate McLouth (.219, 2 HR, 6 RBI….211, 1 HR, 4 RBI)
Nyjer Morgan (.400, 0 HR, 8 RBI…1-1)
Adam LaRoche (.294, 3 HR, 6 RBI….167, 1 HR, 3 RBI)

So what does this mean for the Pirates so far? Well, first of all it means to not expect the Bucs to continue along with a sub-3.00 ERA this year. But you already knew that. That doesn’t necessarily mean that the Pirates will continue along as the worst pitching team in the National League this year.

First off, even with Jeff Karstens (who hasn’t pitched yet), the Pirates’ fifth starter spot has to be stronger than it was last year with John Van Benschoten, Matt Morris, and Yoslan Herrera. That trio combined to almost ensure that the Pirates would lose every fifth game this year. On top of that, Ian Snell showed some flashes of his old self in his second start this year and Zach Duke looks like a completely different pitcher than the one that’s gotten repeatedly bombed off of the field in the past three seasons. It’s too early to make any conclusions about either pitcher, but both are showing pretty strong signs that 2009 could bring improvement for both.

Ross Ohlendorf also had a solid first start and we’ll learn more about how well his power sinker is working when he takes the mound for a second tonight, but it’s possible that with Ohlendorf, Duke, and Snell pitching well that the Pirates can actually expect some decent support behind Paul Maholm in the rotation this year. Their bullpen is still shaky and expecting them to continue along with a team ERA of 2.70 is insane, but expecting some considerable improvement might not be so crazy.

Will it make 2009 a winning season for the Pirates? I’m still not so certain, but the pitching staff can certainly be the difference between losing 100 games and finishing up with a record that’s certainly less embarrassing.

The Good

1. Zach Duke. He might’ve put together one of his best starts since 2005 on Wednesday, throwing his fastball consistently in the low 90s and displaying a nasty breaking pitch that kept the Cardinals guessing all game in limiting them to one earned run in 6 1/3 innings.
2. Freddy Sanchez. After a miserable start to 2008, Sanchez has eight hits in his first 18 at bats of 2009.
3. Nyjer Morgan. I’m still not convinced he’s more than a AAAA player, but I’d rather have him hitting than not hitting.

The Bad

1. Ian Snell. He got pounded in to submission in his start on Tuesday, allowing 9 hits and 8 runs in just four innings. Simply put, he needs to be better than this.
2. Andy LaRoche. After an awesome spring, he went hitless in two games in which he made three errors, then was promptly benched for the next two. He’s important to the Pirates’ future and seeing him start 2009 where he ended 2008 is not a good sign.
3. Getting one-hit by a guy that hadn’t won a game since the 2006 World Series. Just not a good sign for the season.

The Bucs move to Cincy this weekend where two wins will ensure them of a winning record when they open PNC Park up on Monday.

And therein lie the Pittsburgh Pirates. Occasional tantalizing highs, followed quickly by crushing defeats that serve as true reminders of why the team is in the position it’s in. The “real” Pittsburgh Pirates are much closer to the bumbling team of Tuesday night, but from time to time the will remind us that they know how to play baseball. Back-to-back nights like Monday and Tuesday are maybe the worst part about being a Pirate fan. A brief reminder of what it’s like to cheer for a good baseball team, followed by the crushing revelation that this team isn’t one of the good teams of memory.

After Monday’s win, I was excited. After Tuesday’s loss, I’ll consider Zach Duke getting Albert Pujols to bounce into a ground-out as a moral victory. Such is life in baseball’s Grand Canyon of fandom.

Paul Maholm- The Buccos’ best pitcher in 2008 is expected to be the same in 2009. His strikeout and walk rates have really advanced over the past couple years and he’s turned into a very serviceable big league starter. Of course, the problem right now is that he’s the Pirates’ ace and so “serviceable” isn’t really all that great. His peripherals suggested he pitched a bit over his head last year, so he’s likely to come back to earth a bit in 2009, though he should still put up numbers on par with a solid third or fourth starter.

Ian Snell- Every year the Pirates have to have a starter that’s incredibly frustrating in his inability to reach his true potential. In the grand tradition of Jason Schmidt, Kris Benson, Kip Wells, and Oliver Perez, Snell took on that mantle last year. Snell’s biggest problem, as noted by every baseball fan in the Western Hemisphere that’s seen him pitch a game, is that he’s incredibly emotional and tends to try to throw his fastball through the catcher when he gets frustrated. This rarely works and tends to create more problems than outs for him. The Pirates had hoped that working with Joe Kerrigan would help Snell become a better pitcher, but he spent much of the spring with Puerto Rico’s World Baseball Classic team where he looked decent but certainly not great. He was pitching better towards the end of 2008, so I don’t expect 2009 to be another disaster eyar for him, but I’m not sure he’s ever going to get back to the level he was at prior to the 2007 All-Star Break.

Zach Duke- Duke is the classic “pitch to contact” pitcher, which is a huge problem on a team with a defense as bad as the Pirates. He’s better than most of his stats suggest, but he won’t be a very good starting pitcher until he starts to miss more bats. To his credit, he has looked decent in spring training this year. Perhaps that means a bit of a bounceback for Duke in 2009, though I wouldn’t count on it.