Indians Set Up For 2012 Contention

Written by: Gary Armida on 15th September 2011

Indians Set Up For 2012 Contention | read this item

Defining success is difficult in Baseball. Sure, the win/loss record is the ultimate indicator, but for some teams, success has to be measured by moments, improvements, and progress.

Before the season began, the Cleveland Indians were generally picked to finish in last place. They were one of the youngest teams in the league. Their best player, Grady Sizemore, was starting the season on the disabled list. Shin-Soo Choo was still dealing with the after effects of his off the field problem. Jack Hannahan was given the starting third base job by default despite rookie Lonnie Chisenhall’s outstanding spring performance. The rotation did not have a quintessential ace and looked more like a collection of number four starters. The Indians’ biggest offseason addition was veteran Orlando Cabrera. Despite some talent developing in the minors, it looked to be a long season in Cleveland.

The Cleveland Indians front office, however, did not believe that. Many times, front office personnel will pay lip service to being able to compete despite a flawed roster or have unrealistic expectations heading into the season based on a period of good play the previous year. The latter happened with the Seattle Mariners a couple of seasons ago. The former happens every season with multiple teams. But, the Indians weren’t in either group.

“When you looked at our team in the spring, we had a lot of young players. We knew we had talent, but young talent is uncertain and volatile. We knew we had talent on the Major League roster and at the other levels of our farm system. We just didn’t know how quickly they would proceed. We knew that if everything broke right, we could contend,” said Mike Chernoff, the Indians Assistant General Manager.

Chernoff and General Manager Chris Antonetti were right about the talent, but wrong about everything going their way. That combination of young talent, some veteran performances, and a weak division helped the Indians to get off 30-15. But, that start wasn’t a product of their expected stars. Choo wasn’t hitting; after a quick return, Sizemore slowed and landed back on the disabled list. Even with all of that, after 45 games, the Indians were the best team in Baseball. “The Cabrera’s (Orlando and Asdrubal) got off to hot starts. The bullpen kept us in close games and we got good performances from the rotation. If you look at our arms out of pen, they are all in their first or second year,” stated Chernoff.

The hot start was the single best story of the early season. The Indians kept winning, but the injuries began to mount. For a small market team, a rash of injuries is typically devastating because the bench is usually thin and it forces them to accelerate the development of their prospects. “The greatest challenge was filling in. At one point, we had 40 percent of our rotation and the top five guys in our regular lineup on the disabled list. One of the challenges of a small market team is you can’t build depth on the Major League roster so you build from Minors. The credit has to go to our scouts and player development team for building that depth. It was the most significant challenge we faced this year,” said Chernoff.

While the division race was getting tighter, the Indians kept plugging those holes. The farm system started to bring some players to the Major League level. Lonnie Chisenhall was brought up. Alex White made his Major League debut. Later in the season, second baseman Jason Kipnis was called up. The young talent began to infiltrate the roster. Asdrubal Cabrera, finally healthy, put together an All-Star season and Carlos Santana continued to develop.

Despite all of the positives after the first 45 games, they won just 23 games against 46 losses in their next 69 games. At the non-waiver trade deadline, they were in second place, but only 1.5 games behind the Tigers. Most believed that the Indians had their run, but that they had some luck mixed in to yield those results. The Twins and White Sox were under-performing. The Tigers slept walked through most of the first half before finally overtaking the Indians. The Indians’ pitching showed signs of weakness, especially in the power department. Despite good results, the Indians lacked a starter with strikeout ability. Justin Masterson led the rotation with 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings. While solid, the lack of strikeouts puts way too much pressure on a team defense.

It looked like the Indians should’ve started the “preparing for next season” plan under the idea that they showed some promise and now it was time to sell off some assets to continue to stock the farm system. Antonetti and Chernoff did the exact opposite. They packaged prized prospects Alex White and Drew Pomeranz along with Joe Gardner and Matt McBride for the Colorado Rockies’ ace, Ubaldo Jimenez. The trade was surprising on a number of levels. The Indians have always been an organization that values prospects. They gave up two of their best prospects for a pitcher who had struggled since the All-Star break of last season. He was a pitcher who showed up out of shape for Spring Training this season and had lost some velocity in the early season. The velocity loss and slow start are concerns, but outside of Coors Field, Jimenez pitched like the pitcher he showed he could be over the past three seasons. Before the trade, he demonstrated that he was still an ace outside of Coors Field. Away from Coors, Jimenez started 10 games. In 61.1 innings, he allowed just 40 hits, 23 runs, 26 walks, and struck out 67 batters. It doesn’t get much better than that.

The question remained as to whether or not the Indians lost focus on their plan. They weren’t expected to compete. They were looking at 2013 as the real target date for their best prospects to all be at the Major League level. Could a big start be enough for them to put all of their chips in and unload their farm system? The Seattle Mariners did that a couple of seasons ago when they misread a good season filled with good fortune for a real contender that was just a couple of high priced players away from contention. It is a dangerous path, especially for a small market team. If they misread the situation and trade from their farm system, it could set back the organization a good five years at minimum.

“It was never a short term type of deal. We’re looking at a window of having a core together and adding a guy like Ubaldo Jimenez to impact a potential playoff run and what we think will be a competitive window over the next couple of seasons, it was a move we felt we had to make in order for us to get to that level. We knew his velocity was down and that he had some injuries early. We know with a good offseason, he can be the ace,” said Chernoff.

It was a unique situation to be in for the Indians. They valued their prospects, but they had the chance to acquire a 27 year old pitcher who could and should be their ace over the next couple of seasons. He comes with two more years at an affordable price. If he performs to his 2010 standards, the Indians have a great value. “With that contract and his stuff, he was an ideal fit for our club. Pitchers with his capabilities don’t come on the market all that often and they aren’t often that cost efficient. We liked the pitching prospects we gave up, but they are pitching prospects. Jimenez is more of a sure thing, “ added Chernoff.

Adding a pitcher like Jimenez was paramount for the organization if they truly wanted to contend. The organization lacks a big strikeout pitcher. Jimenez is one of them. He’s averaging 9.2 K/9 during his first 8 starts. While he started slow, he has seemingly found the form that the Indians were looking for. In his last four starts, he has pitched 26 innings, allowed 18 hits, 11 walks, and has struck out 26 batters. His 3.12 ERA and opponents batting line of .191/.290/.309 are in line with the ace-level stuff that the Indians were banking on.

The reality of the season finally came for the Indians. They are no longer contenders thanks to their own poor play, so many injuries, and the Tigers’ hot streak. They are now struggling to finish .500 on the season. Although the beginning of the season began with so much promise, it would be a mistake to label this season as disappointing. The youthful Indians gained valuable experience. They were able to promote Lonnie Chisenhall and Jason Kipnis. Carlos Santana is more experienced. Michael Brantley played well for a large stretch of the season. Asdrubal Cabrera is one of the better shortstops in Baseball. “We certainly wanted to win the division, but we are happy with the progress we’ve made in a lot of areas. Jason Kipnis surprised us. We knew he was talented, but you never expect that type of performance right off the bat. Lou Marson came on in the second half, which allowed us to move Carlos (Santana) around. Jason Donald has filled in well. And, Carlos Santana gives us great power from that position and gets on base,” said Chernoff.

Santana is still one of the best offensive prospects in the game. At quick glance, Santana has posted a disappointing season as he has a .236/.348/.446 batting line. But, a .348 on base percentage is significant from a catcher as are his 31 doubles and 23 homeruns. It is often overlooked how difficult it is for a young catcher to manage a staff and learn how to hit at the Major League level. It is especially important to someone like Santana, who hasn’t been a catcher all that long. “It’s important to remember that he’s only been a catcher for four years. As a hitter, he needs to develop a more consistent approach. Sometimes he gets stuck in pull mode. He continues to patient, but just needs to develop the consistency to hit where the ball is pitched,” continued Chernoff, “Defensively, it is also about consistently. Staying in game, calling the right pitches, his footwork needs to consistent. Those are things that most young catchers need to work on.”

Perhaps the Indians would be best served to move Santana to another position in order to maximize his offensive potential. Chernoff isn’t quite ready to do that. “We’ll continue to evaluate. There’s no reason why he can’t be the catcher of the Cleveland Indians. Because his bat is so good, keeping the 1B option open is important. Most catchers will catch 120 games a year. We need another position, whether it is first base or DH, to give him another 20 to 30 games.”

As the season heads into the final couple of weeks, the Indians’ goals have obviously changed. The playoffs aren’t happening. But, the organization believes it has a winning club. Finishing with more than 81 wins after dealing with all of the injuries would be an accomplishment. The season has given the young Indians experience to use next season both on and off the field. Being in first place and playing meaningful games in August is a help. Getting to pick the brain of someone like Jim Thome, a player whom Chernoff says has already become a go to guy in the clubhouse for the younger players, is invaluable. All of that helps. But, Chernoff is insistent on the notion that this season hasn’t impacted the organizational plan.

“We felt we could contend this year and we did. The focus didn’t change, but it certainly sped up the process this season with our success. And that’s great. We’re focusing on winning. Look, we’re a small market team so we’re probably not going to sign the top free agents, but we are looking at putting out the best team we can. If that means signing a free agent that fits our budget, then we’ll do it. We have a window with our core offense and Ubaldo Jimenez leading our staff. We will contend next season,” said Chernoff.

The 2011 season didn’t finish like the Indians imagined. They looked like the magical team before all of the injuries hit. But, this season is the type of foundation-setting season for a young team with some high end talent. The entered the season without a number one starter. They will enter next season with Ubaldo Jimenez fronting the rotation. That is a major upgrade. The young bullpen will return in tact.

There are many questions and flaws that must be fixed. It is certain that the Indians won’t compete with the Tigers and White Sox on the free agent front. But, the organization has shown an ability to develop talent and make good trades. With their young core in place, an ace to lead the staff, a young bullpen, and a developing star in Santana, the Indians can compete in 2012. That alone validates their 2011 season. Success can be defined in many ways. The 2011 Indians have been successful. They’ve set up the 2012 Indians to be legitimate contenders for the Central Division crown.

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Topics: Ace, baseball, Best Player, Chris Antonetti, Cleveland Indians, Contention, Defining Success, Grady Sizemore, Improvements, Jack Hannahan, Lip Service, Lonnie Chisenhall, Major League, Orlando Cabrera, Previous Year, Seattle Mariners, Shin-Soo Choo, Spring Performance, Starters, Unrealistic Expectations

Catching Up With Some Work « The Baseball Scribe says:

September 26, 2011 at 1:00 pm

[...] Indians Set Up For 2012 Contention Defining success is difficult in Baseball. Sure, the win/loss record is the ultimate indicator, but for some teams, success has to be measured by moments, improvements, and progress. [...]