The Possible Trade Ripple

Written by: Charles Sollars on 29th July 2010

The Possible Trade Ripple | read this item

The trade season is close to ending and the Cardinals have done nothing. This is a either a good or bad thing depending on how you are looking at this team. The team is currently in a back and forth game of leap frog with the Reds for the top of the division. The Reds have the easiest remaining record, which means they have the best chance to win the division. This means the Cardinals are most likely playing for a Wildcard spot.

There are nine teams with 50 or more wins other than the Cards. There will be three division winners leaving 6 teams with 50 or more wins for the Wildcard. If we give the division titles to the Reds, Braves, Padres there then is a huge race for that final spot. The Cardinals(55) are behind the the Giants who have 57 wins but ahead of the Rockies(51), Phillies(54), Mets(51), Dodgers(54), and Marlins (50).

The Marlins and Mets are long shots to win the Wildcard but they can surely cause problems for everyone else. The Phillies, Dodgers, and Giants are all said to be working the phones hard as the deadline nears. The Rockies are finally getting healthy which will ad the same pop of talent that any trade could bring the team. So, the Cardinals are in the spot of looking not only at the Reds to see if they can beat them to win the division but they also have to look closely at the six teams in the Wildcard hunt.

Do the Cards need to make a move is being asked in every bar, newspaper and TV show. Can anyone player guarantee this team a spot in the playoffs. The answer to this question is the key to understanding if any trade is a good trade. The team has to be brutally honest with themselves this week because bringing on a bad contract or two could not only ruin this season but seasons for years to come. The question is simple can Oswalt or any other player for that matter bring enough wins to the Cardinals to make up the difference in strength of schedule between them and the Reds.

If all the stars fall in place to bring Oswalt to the Cardinals it will mean the team will have added more than $38 million dollars to the books for the next two years. Oswalt would require several players such as Miller and Jay to be sent to the Astros along with $16 million next year and $16 million the year after not to mention the $6 million remaining this year. Oswalt could push the Cards into first place in the Division making for a strong rotation for the World Series run. The other side of the coin is that Reds could plow through their soft remaining schedule offsetting the wins brought in by Oswalt putting the Redbirds in a dog fight for the Wildcard.

The worst case scenario here is that Cards are left out of the playoffs this year with $32 million committed to Oswalt. This result would most likely not sit well with Albert. Oswalt on the roster will also take away the amount of money that the team can throw Albert next year when he is a free agent.

Simply doing nothing is an option that also could anger Albert. If the team seems unwilling to do whatever it takes win now they may not have a chance to win later if Albert leaves. The Cardinals are in a rough spot as the deadline nears. The cheaper talent of Haren and Lee are off the board leaving only the more expensive Oswalt or lesser talent left on the market.

The Cardinals have to decide if they need to make a trade to help make a playoff push or if it is best to do nothing even if that means not making the playoffs. By rolling the dice that the current roster can pull out the division is around 30% once you factor in the soft schedule of the Reds. The the wildcard race is even worse just because there are so many teams in the running at this point of the season. The Cardinals can save the the $6 million that Oswalt would make for the rest of this year and the $32 million over the next two seasons for a total of $38 million in an offer for Cliff Lee in the summer.

If the move is to do nothing at the deadline the team needs to let the fans and the team know that it is because they are waiting until the summer to go after a better package of free agents or a better value trade.

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