Fantasy Life: To Keep or Not to Keep…

Written by: Jay Ferraro on 6th February 2010

Fantasy Life: To Keep or Not to Keep… | read this item

There comes a time in every fantasy owner’s off-season when one of the hardest decisions in their life has to be made. No, it’s not how many buffalo wings to order for their Super Bowl party. They have to decide who to retain in their keeper league. This decision may seem like a no brainer at times if you own the likes of Pujols, Lincecum, or Longoria. But as managers know, that’s not always the case and a player you retained the previous year may have been a major disappointment. Will you let a bad campaign change your mind on re-keeping a player? Should you give him another year to compete for you? If you let him go, will you be able to re-draft him? All these questions have to be raised when making your final choices. Once again I reached out to my fantasy baseball brother Chris McCarthy to express his thoughts on the subject:

Chris: After a heartbreaking 2008 season in which I lost the championship on the final day by 3 Ks and a hold (looking at you, Joba), I thought 2009 would be my year. I was wrong. Not only did I not win the championship, but after leading my division most of the season, my team fizzled out and did not even make the playoffs. Pointing fingers gets us nowhere – however, I will do it anyway. My ace Brandon Webb only pitched once (Opening Day) and then decided to be hurt the rest of the year. Jimmy Rollins had a good second half, but until July was only batting .229. And Dustin Pedroia, after winning the AL MVP in 2008, didn’t come close to repeating his flashy numbers in ‘09. It’s almost as if they didn’t even care they were on my fantasy team. I mention those three guys specifically because they were my keepers going into 2009. Well now I am faced with the same decision going into 2010. Who to keep?

Choosing keepers can be difficult, especially if you are not in a conventional 5×5 league. My league is 9×9 and includes Holds, Errors, Ks (batter), and OPS. That changes things when one is faced with whether to keep a power hitter or a guy who hits for average and doesn’t strike out much. I went with the latter in 2009 and was wishing I had at least one big bat all season. Gearing up for 2010, I can either keep the same three guys, or go with someone else. Jason Bay is a tempting name in my OF, but I don’t think he’s likely to hit even 30 HR in CitiField this year. Not to mention I believe he had a streak of striking out 4 times a game for two straight months last season (don’t look that up). A guy I am seriously considering, though, is 3B Aramis Ramirez. When healthy, Ramirez is a top tier third baseman. An early season injury kept his power numbers down in ’09, but he still hit .317 with 15 HR and 65 RBI in just 300 at bats. I will more than likely keep Webb, as it never hurts to have a proven ace leading your pitching staff. I will also probably keep Rollins, simply because his potential as an elite shortstop is greater than most that will be available. Jason Bay may stick around later than usual in the draft, and if I see fit, I may grab him again.

Although selecting keepers is crucial, the draft is still the most important thing – especially since the biggest names will be off the table from the first round. Smart drafting will beat smart keeper picks if you play your cards right. So once your keepers are in place, get to researching the likes of Matt Wieters and Jair Jurrjens. And if you happen to be in my league, please pay no attention to the previous sentence.

The act of choosing keepers can have an owner tossing and turning in their bed at night. Now that Chris has weighed in on the subject, I can admit this has all been a ploy for insight into his draft strategy for 2010. I’m just kidding, I would never deliberately try to extract vital information from an opponent. Or would I? That being said, Jurrjens is mine, so keep your dirty paws off of him!

If I had to choose three players out of the five mentioned : Bay, Ramirez, Webb, Rollins, and Pedroia, I would decide to keep the same three Chris did in 2009- Webb, Rollins, and Pedroia. It’s hard to not let Webb go after he bit Chris in the butt the previous year. However, I can’t discount an ace in the National League on his walk year and especially with all other aces being kept. Webb is going to have a fine year and be in contention for the National League CY Young. I do like Ramirez and Bay as fantasy players, however the scarcity of short stops and second basemen helped me come to my decision to keep both Rollins and Pedroia. Outfielders are a dime a dozen, and the draft pool will be flooded with solid fantasy contributors in that position . Ramirez may be the better option for his squad, but I like the fact that Rollins and Pedroia will score more runs and steal more bases. Pedroia has lead the AL in runs back-to-back years with 118 and 115 and snagged 20 bags back-to-back years. Rollins did have an off year by his standards but still scored 100 runs and snagged 31 bags. Locking up short stop and second base before the draft starts can open up a wide variety of draft strategies.

All-in-all your keeper picks are just the tip of the very cold iceberg that sunk the Titanic ( too soon?). Owners have to make savvy late round draft choices and scan the Waiver Wire Abyss for diamonds in the rough and stop gap fillers. I snagged Ryan Braun off waivers a few years ago when he got called to the show and that acquisition helped me win a championship. Stay vigilant and keep your eyes open.

Jay Ferraro is the Executive Producer of Baseball Digest LIVE. He is also a columnist for Baseball Digest and BaseballDigest.com. You can reach him at Jay_Ferraro@Juno.com , follow him on Twitter here and add him on Facebook here

Chris McCarthy is a writer and two-time Fantasy Baseball League champion. You can reach him at CMcCarthy12@gmail.com.

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Topics: AL MVP, Brainer, Brandon Webb, Brother Chris, Buffalo Wings, Chris Mccarthy, Disappointment, dustin pedroia, Fantasy, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Owner, Fantasy Team, Jimmy Rollins, Keeper League, Lincecum, Opening Day, Ops, Pointing Fingers, Previous Year, Three Guys

Joe Lano says:

February 6, 2010 at 2:54 pm

Really? You would keep Webb? You have worry about that shoulder, don’t you? I would keep Bay over Webb and if you want him so badly draft him back or better yet draft a healthy ace early in the draft. With only 3 keeper there has to be a better, less risky option. Just my opinion.