The what if game of trades never made

Written by: Charles Sollars on 16th December 2009

The what if game of trades never made | read this item

Now that the blockbuster trade of the year is done a few questions come into view. The first question is who won the trade. The second question is what does it mean for the rest of the league, but those questions are for other writers. The question that every Cardinals fan has to be thinking right now is could Halladay have made it to St. Louis.

This is not a silly question if you really think about it, if you really look what the Jays are getting for Halladay. The first trade between the Phillies and Jays sent outfielder Michael Taylor, catching prospect Travis d’Arnaud and pitcher Kyle Drabek to Toronto. The Jays have will then send Taylor to the A’s for Brett Wallace.

The trade of Taylor for Wallace makes any Cardinals fan wonder what could have been if Wallace and the other prospects were not moved for Holliday. The package that landed Holliday would have not landed Halladay but with Wallace still on the roster making a package for Toronto would have been in reach.

Let’s just play the what if game.

What if the Cards never make the trade for Holliday and thus keep Wallace, outfielder Shane Peterson, right-hander Clayton Mortensen, and the six or so million Holliday was paid for the last half of the season. This means that Holliday is now on the open market after turning down a contract from whatever team he ended up with after the trade deadline. Roy Halladay is still being shopped by Toronto for the best offer. What if the Cardinals jumped into the winter meetings with the first offer to Toronto? What if that offer included Wallace a prospect that the Jays have already shown they covert along with say catcher Robert Stock the number four rated prospect in the Cardinals system and pitcher Jess Todd the number five rated player in the system last year and outfielder Darryl Jones, who is ranked fifth in the system.

This deal would most likely go through the way it is stated but even if Clay Mortensen and Shane Peterson were thrown in to push the deal over the hump the Cards will still only be losing Todd, Jones, and Stock from the current system.

Now lets factor in that Toronto is said to be shipping six million to the Phillies in this deal and the 6 or so million that Holliday made last year during his time with the Cards. We better not forget the one year deal that Penny received only a few days ago at 7.5 million guaranteed with another 1.5 million in possible bonuses. So lets say Penny gets all of his bonus money that puts his deal at 9 million. If we add six million, six million, and nine million we get twenty one million dollars. That would mean that for the price of Brad Penny for a year and Matt Holliday for a handful of weeks the Cardinals could have Doc Halladay for a full season plus part of another. This math doesn’t include the added value of the Phillies not getting Doc and the price to hold on to those previously mentioned prospects.

This little math project is still not done so don’t put away the calculator just yet.

What if the Cardinals sign Holliday to the 8 year $16 million a season deal that is rumored to be on the table? That adds up to $128 million over the life time of the deal. Lets also figure that Holliday will be old and over the hill by year 6 of that deal thus making the last two years dead money.

Now this is where it gets fun for all of you playing at home. What if the team would take that same $128 million and spend it over 4 years not eight what could be had using todays market value. Halladay is said to have signed a three year deal at $20 million a season plus the one left on his contract for this year at almost $16 million. So, lets say he takes the same deal in St. Louis taking $76 million off of the $128 million budget. next you give Jason Bay the rest of the money left over a three year deal. The club would then have the best pitcher in baseball and a solid power hitting bat in the outfield all for the same price as a bad Matt Holliday contract.

Topics: Arnaud, Brett Wallace, Cardinals, Clay Mortensen, Clayton Mortensen, Darryl Jones, holliday, Jess, Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, Outfielder Shane, Phillies, Prospects, Right Hander, Robert Stock, Roy Halladay, Shane Peterson, Silly Question, Trade Deadline, Winter Meetings