Offseason Outlook: AL EAST (Part 1)

Written by: Jason Weaver on 19th November 2009

Offseason Outlook: AL EAST (Part 1) | read this item

Offseason Outlook: A.L. EAST (Part 1 of 2)

It is that time of the year again. The World Series is over, awards are being handed out and before you know it, pitchers and catchers will be reporting.

For the next eight weeks, we will be taking a quick look inside each division and will address the offseason outlook for each of those teams. First up, the American League East.

NEW YORK YANKEES:

Well, what more could you really want? They just won their 27th World Series, while leading the majors in wins and $100 million contracts. The season was a gigantic success, even if they did pay top dollar for it. “If it aint broke, don’t fix it”, right? Well, sort of. There are several issues that will need to be addressed in the offseason.

For starters (pun intended), as nostalgic as it may have been to see Andy Pettitte succeed in the post-season once again, one has to wonder whether his time is almost up. He was great in April and August, but was below average for most of the 2009 season. At 37 years old, he can hardly be considered a mainstay in a World Series-caliber rotation. Loyalty can only be stretched so far and I am not sure that I consider bringing back a 37-year old starter in the twilight of his career a smart move. Expect the Yankees to be at the forefront of the John Lackey and Aroldis Chapman bidding wars and heavily involved in trade talks with the Blue Jays regarding Roy Halladay.

Enough is enough. “Joba-rules” has even been referenced on Chamberlain’s Wikipedia page, and I can’t take it anymore. Take the kid off the leash. He clearly lost a bit of confidence towards the end of 2009 and it seems the pitch-counts did more harm than good. Phil Hughes’ role is another situation that needs to be worked out prior to April. A trade to the Blue Jays could resolve the issue for the Yankees, but assuming he remains in the Bronx, is his effectiveness in the bullpen going to keep him out of the rotation yet again? Or better yet, can the Yankees afford to give him a rotation spot? If they are able to acquire another top-of-the-rotation starter, I think they have to keep him in the late-innings role he was so successful in during the 2009 season.

Lastly, the Yankees are going to be very active in the free-agent outfielder market. They have to be. As great as their lineup was in 2009, Melky Cabrera was very inconsistent and Brett Gardner is a one-trick pony. Re-signing a 36-year old Johnny Damon isn’t exactly the best-case scenario. He is primed to earn one last big contract after resilient 2009, and it would be tough to expect a positive return on investment beyond 2010 as his age catches up with him. You can bet Scott Boras is going to milk as much out of Damon’s 2009 season as he can and I believe the Yankees would be foolish to pay that type of premium.

BOSTON REDSOX:

Boston’s season was largely a disappointment, but there were a few positives to make note of. For one, Jon Lester has officially established himself as one of the top starters in the A.L.. From June on he was one of the most dominant pitchers in all the majors. Take this comparison into consideration.

June through September:

Player A: 8-7, 147 IP, 2.76 ERA, 154 Ks
Player B: 11-3, 138 IP, 2.34 ERA, 151 Ks

What would you say if I told you that one of these players won the A.L. Cy Young Award on Tuesday? Well, you probably wouldn’t be too shocked. However, what if I told you that Player B is Jon Lester? Now that is shocking.

Another pleasant surprise of 2009 was the way Jason Bay fully acclimated himself in front of the “Green Monster”. Bay did about as much as he could to guarantee himself the largest payday of his career, posting career-highs in HRs (36) and RBI (119). In addition to the power production, Bay registered an on-base percentage of .384 and walked 94 times. The highest either of those numbers had been since 2006. The Sox are expected to make a big push for one of the two big-name free agent outfielders (Bay and Matt Holliday), but the fact that Bay has already demonstrated his ability to deliver in a market like Boston should swing the Red Sox interest his way. They are going to have to reach deep down into their wallet for either one of them, so they might as well write the check to the guy who has already proven his worth to the organization.

One of the few glaring concerns the Red Sox have heading into the offseason is what they are going to do about the shortstop position. The Sox declined their $6M option on Alex Gonzalez and Jed Lowrie is clearly not the answer. There also isn’t anyone in the minors even remotely close to successfully occupying the position on an everyday basis. They could bring back Gonzalez at a discounted rate or they could not-so-shockingly gut the farm system to bring back Hanley Ramirez. At this point the Sox intentions are anyone’s guess, but they do have the pop in their lineup to reserve the position for a defensively superior player like Gonzalez. I have a tendency to think they may want to think long-term at shortstop and Alex Gonzalez will be 33 when pitchers and catchers report.

“The Kids Are Alright”. Lester, as mentioned above, is turning into one of the best lefties in the game. Josh Beckett ran into some rough patches throughout the year and he is again giving up too many HRs, but he remains an ace in his own right. Even Clay Buchholz rebounded nicely in the second half of the season. However, Tim Wakefield’s body continues to grow more brittle by the day and although Daisuke Matsuzaka seemed to pitch with considerably more conviction towards the end of the season, he really can’t be trusted to deliver quality starts on a consistent basis. The Red Sox will almost certainly want to explore the possibility of acquiring another top-flight starter, and whether they go after John Lackey, Roy Halladay or even Rich Harden, one thing is for certain. The Red Sox have always understood that depth at the front of the rotation is a must for a World Series run and the defending champion New York Yankees will likely be stocking up once again.

Offseason Outlook: A.L. EAST (Part 2) will cover the Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles later this week.

Topics: 100 Million, 37 Years, andy pettitte, Bidding Wars, Blue Jays, bullpen, Caliber, Chamberlain, Joba Rules, John Lackey, Mainstay, New York Yankees, Phil Hughes, Pitch Counts, Pitchers And Catchers, Roy Halladay, Smart Move, Top Dollar, Trade Talks, Wikipedia, World Series