Final Grades: Rotation

Written by: David Lee on 4th October 2009

Final Grades: Rotation | read this item

I’ll go over some of my preseason statements and post my final grades for each player, starting with the rotation.

Derek Lowe: (F)
“Lowe hasn’t recorded an ERA above three since 2004 and has averaged 15 wins the past seven seasons. He also has reached 200 innings in all but two years since becoming a starter in 2002. Lowe will be counted on to lead the rotation and rack up 200 innings.”

Obviously nobody expected the type of season Derek Lowe had. He made 34 starts, pitching 194 innings and posting a 4.67 ERA. The ERA is his highest since 2004, but the real problem? Career highs in walks, BAA, and hits allowed. Lowe did not fool anybody in 2009, and it has gotten to the point where people are asking about his trade availability. You have to think the Braves will expect him to return to what he’s capable of in 2010, but I think he has lost the ace label for good in Atlanta. I expect a middle of the rotation job next season.

Javier Vazquez: (A+)
“Vazquez will be counted on to provide what the Braves sorely lacked last season, a true innings-eater that records strikeouts. As is the case with Kawakami, he will be counted on to provide solid numbers from the middle of the rotation.”

Javier Vazquez was pretty much the opposite of Lowe this year. I expected a low-four ERA with 200 strikeouts for Vazquez. Instead, he posted a 2.87 ERA with 238 strikeouts. The trade made Frank Wren look very good, especially considering Tyler Flowers didn’t have a future in Atlanta anyway. Hopefully the surprise of 2009 will return to Atlanta next season, and Wren won’t use him to find the bat the Braves need. Vazquez is said to really like Atlanta (who doesn’t?) because he’s closer to his family. I expect him to anchor the staff next year.

Jair Jurrjens: (A-)
“Jurrjens has since taken a back seat with the offseason signings, but is expected to remain an anchor in the rotation for years to come.”

Jair Jurrjens never took a back seat in 2009. He bested his 2008 ERA by a full run despite having very similar numbers in almost every other category (check out Athlon’s latest Short Hops for a table on this). The lone difference was his BAA and OPS against, both of which were considerably lower this season. I expect the ERA to level off in 2010 (between 2008 and 2009′s) and the K/BB ratio to stay around the same for the next couple years. He’s a young buck.

Tommy Hanson: (A-)
“Hanson should see time in Atlanta in 2009 but will not be expected to have a role until possibly the next year.”

Wrong, maybe? Tommy Hanson was everything everybody wanted him to be when he got called up, and I think Wren handled his call up perfectly. Hanson made 21 starts and 127 innings pitched, which I think is a good number for a rookie. He did walk 46 but kept his WHIP at a good level (1.18), not to mention the 116 strikeouts. A full season might have made him a better Rookie of the Year candidate, and if not for his last two starts, I think he should have been the front runner. In any case, Hanson is the future ace of this team and it won’t take more than a year or two for him to front the rotation.

Tim Hudson: (B)
I failed to even mention Tim Hudson in my preview, but he’ll be talked about plenty this offseason. Hudson made six starts this season after returning from surgery, and he looked really good. He went seven innings in two of the starts and reached 90 pitches in two of the six. Hudson has an option for next season that has already been heavily debated. It more than likely won’t get picked up but there is a real possibility he will be brought back with a new contract next year.

Kenshin Kawakami: (C)
“The 33-year-old will be expected to be a staple in the middle of the rotation.”

Wrong again. Kenshin Kawakami started the season respectable enough, pitching a lot of six inning, three-run starts, though the Braves didn’t seem to win many of them. But he slid off about halfway through, possibly from shoulder pains that he wouldn’t admit to, maybe from fatigue (he experienced both in Spring Training). Being the first Japanese player in Braves history, I really had no idea what to expect from Kawakami. Either way, he lost his job to Hudson and is not worth being a long reliever with the contract he has. If Hudson is re-signed, I don’t see where he fits other than as a long reliever.

Topics: Ace, Anchor, Atlanta Braves, Back Seat, Braves, Career Highs, derek lowe, Flowers, Hasn, jair jurrjens, javier vazquez, Job, Kawakami, kenshin kawakami, Lead, Seven Seasons, Surprise, tim hudson, tommy hanson, Walks, Wren