White Sox 2010 roster starting to take shape

Written by: JJ Stankevitz on 10th September 2009

White Sox 2010 roster starting to take shape | read this item

Even though 2009 technically isn’t over yet, most of the focus down the stretch for the current White Sox team is on 2010.

If you’re an optimist, you see that the White Sox have won seven of their last nine and are 6.5 games back of Detroit with six games left against the Tigers. You see that Jake Peavy will make his Sox debut in the near future and start getting thoughts of a starting rotation that could be capable of leading the Sox on a long winning streak. You see certain parts of the offense really clicking while ignoring the Alex Rioses and Jermaine Dyes.

If you’re a pessimist, you acknowledge that the Sox have won seven of their last nine, but you look at those wins and don’t see a whole lot to be encouraged about. Sloppy wins like yesterday’s 13-inning 4-3 win take precedent over the three wins the Sox had against Boston over the weekend. You see Alex Rios and wonder why he’s still in the lineup.

Fact is, the White Sox are 70-71. If Detroit were to go .500 the rest of the way, they would finish with 87 wins. For the White Sox to at least equal that, they would have to go 17-4 down the stretch. So unless the 2009 White Sox suddenly morph into the 2007 Rockies, they’re not making the playoffs.

But that doesn’t mean you should give up on following this team. The last month of 2009 is proving to be an important month for players vying for a roster spot next year. A look now at how 2010 is shaping up to shake out:

Locks

Mark Buehrle
Jake Peavy
John Danks
Gavin Floyd
Matt Thornton
Tony Pena
Scott Linebrink
D.J. Carrasco
Paul Konerko
Chris Getz
Jayson Nix
Alexei Ramirez
Gordon Beckham
Carlos Quentin
Alex Rios

Likely coming back, but not 100%

A.J. Pierzynski
Mark Kotsay
Freddy Garcia

Probably coming back, but not in the same confidence group as the players above

Scott Podsednik
Bobby Jenks

Probably not coming back, but not definitely leaving

Jermaine Dye
Dewayne Wise
Randy Williams

Not coming back:

Octavio Dotel
Ramon Castro

Youth that could make the 2010 roster:

Tyler Flowers
Jhonny Nunez
Carlos Torres
Daniel Hudson

So, what players could help their cause in the season’s final 21 games?

Jermaine Dye. His chances of coming back were already slim before his post All-Star game slide given that he bats right-handed. The Sox are far more likely to pursue a left-handed corner outfielder or designated hitter on the free agent market (with Bobby Abreu making the most sense) to balance out the right-handed power of Paul Konerko and Carlos Quentin. However, if Dye comes on strong—and I mean strong—in the last gasp of 2009, he could have his $12 million mutual option picked up after the season. I’m not saying it’s guaranteed that a good finish will get Dye’s option picked up, though, but it at least would make the Sox consider it more.
Freddy Garcia. Barring an injury or unexpected collapse, Garcia is well on his way to having his $1 million option for 2010 picked up after the season. After looking pretty bad against Kansas City in his 2009 debut, Garcia has scrapped together four consecutive quality starts—three of which came against the Red Sox or Yankees. He’s not doing it with anything flashy (Cheat at SouthSideSox aptly referred to Garcia’s repertoire as a “varying assortment of slop”), but he’s pitching about as well as you can expect from a fifth starter. If he’s able to avoid an injury down the stretch, he’ll probably move into the “lock” category by October.
Scott Podsednik. Bringing Podsednik back would be a risky proposition, but if his OBP stays as high as it is (.358 after Thursday’s game), the Sox very well could be tempted to bring him back. If they do, he’s probably play left and the Sox would have Carlos Quentin slide to his natural position of right field. But here’s the danger of bringing back Podsednik: he’s only had three good years in the majors, and after every one of them, he’s had at least one bad season. After finishing 2003 with a .373 OBP, Podsednik’s OBP plummeted to .313 in 2004. After a .351 OBP in 2005, his OBPs in 2006-08 were .330, .299, .322. He’ll be 34 next March and is always an injury risk, so the Sox should exercise caution with him in the offseason.
Alex Rios. Yeah, he’s coming back, but he hasn’t exactly won Sox fans over with his play since joining the Sox in mid-August. His triple-slash since joining the Sox:.157/.165/.241, good for a .404 OPS in 86 plate appearances. For comparison, Brent Lillibridge has a .424 OPS in 86 plate appearances. Yeah. Let that sink in for a bit. Brent Lillibridge has been a better hitter than Alex Rios with the White Sox this year. Rios’ swing looks awful, his defense has been brutal, and he’s making a boatload of money over the next five years. He’s already starting to hear it from Sox fans, and having a nice hot streak down the stretch would go a long way toward silencing some of the boos coming from the stands at U.S. Cellular Field. However, Rios first needs to fix that gaping hole in his swing that anybody who’s seen him bat four or five times has noticed.
Bobby Jenks. He’ll be due for a raise on the $5.9 million he earned in 2009, and if the Sox determine that they need to cut salary in the offseason, Jenks likely will be first on the chopping block. There’s not much Jenks can do at this point to change that unless he suffers an arm injury or blows about nine saves in a row to end the year. But hey, if that does happen, Jenks will certainly find himself in a Sox uniform again next year. My guess is that the Sox look into trading Jenks, but balk at it unless they can find a reliable left-hander to replace Matt Thornton (who would presumably move into the closer role) in a setup role.
Carlos Torres. I’m not sure how much the Sox will use Torres following his awful start against the A’s Tuesday, but if he’s used in long-relief and has success, his chances of making the Sox in a similar role in 2010 will go up. Consistency is a huge issue with Torres, but if he’s able to string together some nice two or three-inning outings out of the bullpen in these final few games it could go a long way toward him getting a head start on a roster spot in 2010.

I didn’t include Mark Kotsay in here because his performance as a reserve player speaks for itself (he’s been solid)—the Sox probably will want him back regardless of how he plays down the stretch. The only way he doesn’t come back is if he accepts a more attractive offer on the free agent market this winter.

Scott Linebrink was in the “lock” category not because of his performance, but because no team is likely to take on the $10.5 million he’s owed over the next two years. For better or for worse, Linebrink will be around with the Sox through 2011.

I’d also want to think Dewayne Wise would be part of the “not coming back” category, but the Sox seem to have an infatuation with Wise despite his inability to hit major league pitching with any sort of consistency. The Sox could probably do better than Wise for a backup outfielder, but there’s no guarantee they decide to spring for that better outfielder.

Finally, the Sox only go back to the Randy Williams well if every other bullpen option has been exhausted. It’s pretty unlikely that they turn to Williams, but for whatever reason, I can’t rule it out.

Topics: Alex Rios, Bobby Jenks, Carlos Torres, Dewayne Wise, Freddy Garcia, Jermaine Dye, Randy Williams, Scott Linebrink, Scott Podsednik, White Sox