Upstate Update

Written by: Justin Murphy on 1st July 2009

Upstate Update | read this item

After being swept in Monday’s doubleheader at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, the Red Wings are 37-40, 7.5 games out of first. Scranton, on the other hand, is 44-32, the best mark in the International League. A little more than halfway through the season, it’s a good time to consider what is missing in Rochester, and compare with Scranton, where everything is going right.
First, last, and in between is pitching. In the International League, the Red Wings are second to last in runs allowed, hits allowed, and WHIP, and third from the bottom in BB/9. Only Columbus has gotten worse performance on the mound; fittingly, they’re one of the few teams with a worse record than the Wings.
There are a handful of stories behind the poor pitching. First, and predictably for a Triple-A team, there has been a lot of roster movement. Already, 19 different pitchers have appeared for the Wings in 2009. Some of them (Sean Penn, Jose Mijares, Bobby Keppel) have graduated to Minnesota, while others (Carmen Pignatiello, Mike Gosling, Ben Julianel, Ben Hendrickson), have been given their walking papers. Throw in the short-term promotion of Anthony Swarzak and the arrival of youngsters Jeff Manship and Rob Delaney, and there is no reason to expect stability from the staff.
Yet, every other team in Triple-A experiences the same flux, and only one of them has pitched as poorly as Rochester. Incredibly, Scranton has sent out 27 different pitchers, yet have surrendered the fewest runs per game of any team in the league. So what is the difference? Or, rather, who is the difference?
Among the starting pitchers, only Swarzak and, to an extent, Kevin Mulvey have been consistently effective. Early in the season, Brian Duensing had a pair of poor outings. When he turned things around in April, Phil Humber started to struggle, with a 7.00 ERA in May. Jason Jones started badly and has gotten worse—in his last ten appearances, he’s allowed 76 hits in 49 innings, and struck out only 18 batters.
Based on his first start in Rochester, Manship may alleviate some of those problems. He was due for a promotion after 27 starts in New Britain over the last two years, and bounced back from early struggles in his Frontier Field debut. If he can step into the rotation and be steady, it will give a rotation of Swarzak, Mulvey, Humber, Duensing and Manship, with Jones going to the bullpen.
That brings us to the bullpen, which has been downright bad. Rochester began the season with four lefties in reserve; now, due to attrition and promotion, only Tim Lahey remains. The right-handed Princeton grad pitched well in June after a horrific May. His peripherals, though, show too many walks and not enough strikeouts. Juan Morillo has cut his walks significantly since joining Rochester, but not enough to declare the problem solved, and he struggled with command again in June. Reid Santos has been seriously inconsistent in his swing role.
The biggest bright spot in the bullpen has been Armando Gabino, who was bypassed a week ago when the Twins instead promoted Keppel. In his last ten appearances, he’s pitched 20.2 innings and allowed five runs with five walks and 16 strikeouts. Opponents are batting only .210 against him on the season.
Part of the problem, of course, is that the Rochester pitchers simply are not as talented as, say, those in Scranton. Consider the prospects who have thrown for the New York affiliate: Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Kei Igawa, Edwar Ramirez, Jonathan Albaladejo. While part of the Wings’ failure can be attributed to instability or bad luck, it’s also true that the men on the mound are either not real prospects or are failing to live up to expectations.
Offensively, Rochester is eighth in the league with 4.34 runs per game; Scranton is first, with 5.13. The main problem has been slugging, in which the Wings rank 11th. Here, Danny Valencia and Steve Tolleson have been helpful since they joined the team, and David Winfree and Justin Huber are also carrying their fair share.
Defensively, the Red Wings have been fairly consistent in the outfield with Dustin Martin in left, Jason Pridie in center, and Winfree in right. Pridie has excellent range, and Winfree has accumulated 6 outfield assists. In the infield, the lineup has been much more variable, largely due to a lack of quality pieces. With the arrivals of Valencia, Tolleson and Alexi Casilla, that has improved. Trevor Plouffe has been a fixture at shortstop, but is struggling at the plate. Tolleson plays a very solid second base; Valencia has struggled at third, but his bat keeps him in the lineup. The Twins hope he’ll continue to develop and step into their lineup next season. Huber has committed only one error at first base.
At the beginning of the season, there were question marks regarding depth in the infield, but these have been more or less ironed out. Drawing the short straw is Luke Hughes, the Australian third baseman who has been elbowed aside by Valencia. Matt Macri has been strong defensively wherever he plays, but doesn’t carry much of a bat and looks, at this point, to be mere organizational filler. Tommy Watkins and Brock Peterson are the same, at least the way I see it.
Lastly, there is one team strength that may have gone unnoticed by many. The Red Wings are far and away the best team in the IL at throwing out base runners. They’re gotten 40% of them, compared to the league mark of 28%. That is thanks to catcher Drew Butera, who makes up for his offensive handicap with a laser arm. In fact, his personal mark is 47%; the team average is weighed down by Jose Morales, who got just 19% in his time here. Next year, presuming that Mike Redmond is not brought back, Butera will be a strong candidate for a back-up job in the Twin Cities.
Can the Wings catch the Yankees? Probably not, although in fairness, they’d won four straight before the doubleheader in Scranton. If they do make a run, it will be thanks to the mid-season promotions from New Britain and, hopefully, a few timely demotions from Minnesota. At the present, their shortcomings are clear to see. Fixing them is a much taller order, especially for a minor league club.