Series preview: Mariners @ White Sox

Written by: JJ Stankevitz on 27th April 2009

Series preview: Mariners @ White Sox | read this item

After losing two of three to the surprising Blue Jays, the equally (and probably more) surprising Seattle Mariners come to town for a three-game series. Seattle is out to a 12-7 start in thanks to the classic baseball formula for success: pitching and defense. Mariners pitchers have a combined 3.50 ERA—third-best in in baseball, only behind Pittsburgh and Kansas City (yes, you read that right—although Pittsburgh’s team ERA is likely to rise as their team BABIP is a ridiculously low .251, among other reasons).

Combine that stellar pitching with a stellar 7.4 team UZR—fourth-best in baseball—and that’s why Seattle is leading the AL West after three weeks. Offensively, they’re still the Mariners—their team OPS is second-worst in baseball at .672—but there are some bright spots, such as Endy Chavez‘ .402 OBP out of the leadoff spot and Russel Branyan’s 1.026 OPS—but of the ten players with 30 or more at-bats on the team, seven have a sub-.700 OPS. Adrian Beltre is the most notable culprit, as in 74 at-bats, his OPS is a paltry .458.

If the series at U.S. Cellular Field turns into a slugfest, the advantage in the series will likely swing to the White Sox. However, given the pitching matchups, that’s not entirely likely.

7:11 pm Monday, April 27: Chris Jakubauskas vs. John Danks

Jakubauskas’ road to the majors is a classic underdog story: he went from making $700 a month and working in the women’s shoe department at a Nordstroms to playing on the same team as Ken Griffey Jr., Ichiro Suzuki, and Felix Hernandez. The 30-year-old rookie has made two starts this year—one good, one bad. Jakubauskas made the Mariners out of spring training thanks to stellar control, but that was absent in his second start as he walked three in 3.1 innings. Jakubauskas isn’t going to blow anybody away with his stuff—a 90 mph fastball, an upper-70’s curveball, and an 80 mph changeup—but if he’s locating well, the Sox are going to be in trouble. If he’s missing his spots—out of the zone and in the zone—the Sox will have a lot of success. Obviously, he doesn’t have the kind of stuff where he can be even the slightest bit inaccurate with his pitches.

Danks has only allowed two runs in 19 innings of work this year, and he finally made it past the sixth inning in his last start against the Orioles April 22. While Danks didn’t strike out a whole lot of batters in that start against Baltimore, he was very efficient with his pitches—and against an offense like the Mariners, Danks should just worry about throwing strikes and pitching to contact so he can get into the seventh or eighth inning.

7:11 pm Tuesday, April 28: Felix Hernandez vs. Bartolo Colon

A trend jumps out when looking at King Felix’s four starts this year: when he gets a lot of ground balls, he has a lot of success, and when he gets a lot of fly balls, he gets hit around a bit. He’s likely going to walk a few batters and rack up a good amount of strikeouts regardless, but if he isn’t locating well in the strike zone he’ll be hittable.

And, by “hittable,” I mean three or four runs, at most. Hernandez is one of the AL’s premier pitchers, and when he’s on, he’s one of the more fun pitchers to watch throw in baseball. If Colon isn’t on his game and Hernandez is, don’t turn off the TV—because watching Hernandez pitch when he’s in a groove is something any baseball fan can enjoy, even if it’s against your team.

Colon is coming off his worst start of the year, only lasting three innings while allowing five runs against Baltimore April 23. What’s troubling about that start was that Colon was consistently burned on sub-90 mph fastballs—which he wasn’t throwing all that often in his successful starts against Minnesota and Tampa Bay. If Colon’s fastball is struggling to scrap 90 on the radar gun, Seattle’s lineup should be able to take advantage of it—at least enough to get Hernandez enough run support to cruise to a win.

1:05 pm Wednesday, April 30: Erik Bedard vs. Gavin Floyd

After being one of the 2007-2008 offseason’s prize acquisitions, Bedard fell off the face of the earth with the Mariners last year, running into back and shoulder problems while making just 15 unimpressive starts.

Something got Bedard going to start 2009, though (myth of the contract year?), and whatever it is, it’s got Bedard back to ace form through four starts. Through 26.0 innings, Bedard has 29 strikeouts to just three walks. That’s good for a 9.67 K/BB ratio. Yikes. He has an ERA of 2.08 through those four starts, and the scary thing is that he’s actually underperforming his FIP of 1.92. Getting two or three runs off Bedard would probably be a success for the White Sox offense.

While Bedard has been a paragon on control, Floyd has been the exact opposite, at least in his bad starts. If Floyd has his control and is throwing his curveball for strikes (like he did here and here), he’ll have a lot of success against a weak Mariners lineup. However, if he doesn’t have good command (like he didn’t here and here), he’s going to have a rough outing. Last year, Floyd was able to pitch over walks thanks to an incredibly low BABIP (.268), but this year, he hasn’t thanks to a pretty high BABIP (.359). That number will likely regress, but it won’t regress back to its 2008 level. It’s almost certainly going to be a trend this year that when Floyd walks three, four, five or more batters, he gives up a lot of runs.

Topics: bartolo colon, Gavin Floyd, Mark Buehrle, White Sox

Latest Headlines

In The News

Around The Horn 2010: Part 7 – The Pitching Staff

Part seven of a seven part series, we will throw it "Around the horn" and look at the 2010 St. Louis Cardinals one position at a time. Today, take a look at the pitchers.

My Three Sons: The Three Keepers who’ll make my Family

In the actual show, My Three

Around The Horn 2010: Part 6 – The Outfield

Part six of a seven part series, we will throw it "Around the horn" and look at the 2010 St. Louis Cardinals one position at a time. Today, take a look at the outfield.

Murray Chass: MILLER NOT IN HALL BUT IN VINCENT BOOK

The third and last volume of

Baseball Tradition

Prince Fielder and the Brewers are becoming known for their celebrations that are outside the traditional baseball fare. Barry Zito and the Giants waited six months to show their disdain.