The importance of 2009 for the White Sox

Written by: JJ Stankevitz on 6th April 2009

The importance of 2009 for the White Sox | read this item

In my preseason predictions, I have the White Sox finishing third in the AL Central en route to missing the playoffs. I might probably will be wrong with my predictions (I had the Mariners and Indians making the playoffs last year…whoops), but if the White Sox don’t reach October in back-to-back seasons, it won’t mean 2009 will be an unimportant year for the White Sox.

No, 2009 could be one of the more important years for determining the direction this White Sox team will go in during the five years.

Who will the building blocks of the future be?

Last year, the White Sox saw breakout performances from four players that helped them reach the playoffs for the first time since 2005. John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Carlos Quentin, and Alexei Ramirez either had unimpressive major league track records or no MLB track record at all before 2008, which makes what each player does in 2009 that much more important.

All of these players are young and under White Sox control until at least 2011. They all have the potential to be the kind of players to build a franchise around, but for the White Sox to be confident in building around this nucleus of Danks, Floyd, Quentin, and Ramirez, they’ll have to repeat or build on their respective successes from 2008.

Each player comes with some red flags and some signs of encouragement. For Danks, all of his peripherals are going in the right direction, but he had a massive innings jump from 2007 (139.0 IP) to 2008 (195.0 IP). Outside of that, though, there’s no reason to think Danks can’t build on his breakout 2008.

For Floyd, his peripherals were not exactly going in the right direction despite a very good 2008. His BB/9 was too high and his BABIP was too low—and with a regression to the mean in the latter category, Floyd will give up more base hits. He’s going to have to keep his walks down if he wants to minimize the damage his ERA likely will take from giving up more hits. That being said, Floyd pitched great in six spring starts, posting a 2.42 ERA in 26.0 innings in Arizona. Baseball is a game that’s played on the field and not on paper and databases, so maybe Floyd can continue to work his magic despite all the projection systems not liking him for 2009.

Expectations will be sky-high for Quentin in 2009 after he broke out with 36 home runs in 2008. It’ll be tough for Quentin to replicate his great numbers of 2008, but those ’08 numbers were not aided by an especially high line drive rate or BABIP. He may not hit the 40 home runs he was on pace to hit before breaking his wrist last September, but 30 home runs and a good sluggling percentage is a real possibility. He didn’t completely extinguish fears that his wrist wasn’t fully healed by only hitting two home runs in Arizona, but until he experiences a power outage in the regular season, I’m not going to be too concerned.

Finally, there’s Ramirez, who by all accounts looked great at shortstop in spring training. How Ramirez fares defensively will be extremely important if there’s an infield logjam in a year or two, as if he performs poorly, a move to centerfield could be in the cards. Offensively, Ramirez is not going to please anyone with his patience, but his power and overall hitting acumen will make him one of the more exciting players to watch in the White Sox lineup.

Can the kids play?

Josh Fields and Chris Getz will get opportunities to play every day, and with talented minor leaguers waiting in the wings (Dayan Viciedo at 3B, Gordon Beckham at 2B), these players may only have one shot to prove that they belong in the majors.

Fields will have to be better defensively and more patient at the plate than he was in 2007. Nobody’s doubting that Fields has excellent power—especially against left-handers—but whether or not Fields can be a viable run producer in the White Sox lineup remains to be seen. Fields won’t have a ton of pressure on him hitting ninth to begin the season, so he’ll have a pretty good situation to build off his 2007 MLB numbers.

If Getz can do an admirable job as the No.2 (or leadoff, if Dewayne Wise struggles) hitter, he’ll be the first White Sox prospect to make an immediate positive impact in the majors in a long, long time. Getz hit .333 in spring training, and if he can carry over .280 of that batting average and a good amount of walks, his year will be a success.

Moreover, if Fields and Getz both have good seasons in 2009, it will create a healthy logjam of young infielders in the White Sox system, which could open the door for some position changes or trades to bolster the rest of the roster.

The Barons might be more interesting than the MLB club

It seems like it’s been forever since the White Sox have had five prospects who have generated as much hope as Gordon Beckham, Dayan Viciedo, Tyler Flowers, Brandon Allen, and Aaron Poreda. All of these players will begin the year at Double-A Birmingham, and their respective developments (or lack thereof) could determine what the White Sox decide to do in next few years.

If their developments continue on the upward plane they’ve been on for the last year or so, then the White Sox will be handed their best farm system in at least the last decade. Beckham is the star prospect of the group, but he’s only played in 14 minor league games in his career. How he handles the slumps that come with a long season will be interesting to see—but if he’s as mature and professional as everyone said he was in spring training, he’ll have no problem putting up numbers worthy of a promotion to the majors sometime in 2010.

Viciedo is the youngest player of the group and will benefit from some seasoning in the minors this year. He has a ton of offensive upside, but where he ends up defensively remains to be seen. A promotion to Triple-A at some point in 2009 could be beneficial to see how Viciedo handles facing better breaking balls than he’ll face in Double-A.

Flowers is another player with good offensive upside but a lot of questions about his defense. He’s looking like he could be the successor to A.J. Pierzynski as the White Sox’ catcher, but if it turns out his abilities as a catcher are not up to par, he could be moved to first base or DH. That move might not happen in 2009, but his defensive performance behind the plate will dictate what position he plays in 2010.

Allen had a breakout year in 2008, posting an OPS of .899 at Single-A Winston-Salem before being promoted to Double-A Birmingham and putting up a .972 OPS. He hit a combined 29 home runs between the two minor league levels in what really was a breakout year for the 23-year-old first baseman—he never had posted an OPS above .840 in any of his previous four seasons in the minor leagues. His power obviously developed last year, and if he can keep up that excellent OPS, he could be in line to be the White Sox’ first baseman of the future when Paul Konerko leaves.

Finally, there’s Poreda, who competed for a spot in the MLB bullpen before being sent to Double-A to work with Barons pitching coach J.R. Perdew. During the spring, Poreda’s offspeed pitches (slider, changeup) looked forced—he was slowing down his entire motion to throw them, and even then, they didn’t look all that good. For Poreda to have success as an MLB starter, his slider and changeup will have to improve, so that’s what’s worth watching with Poreda in 2009. He may continue to have success in Double-A even without good secondary pitches, but he’ll struggle at higher levels if he can’t find a way to be effective with other pitches besides his fastball.

To sum it up…

Even if the Sox aren’t in contention this year, there are still a ton of reasons to watch this team. Heck, even if they don’t make the playoffs, there still could be some nice signs of hope for the future on this team and in the minors.

Maybe I’m just trying to pre-emptively justify watching this team if they’re 38-43 halfway through the season. Either way, it’s going to be at least an interesting season on the South Side.

Topics: Aaron Poreda, Alexei Ramirez, Brandon Allen, carlos quentin, chris getz, Dayan Viciedo, Gavin Floyd, Gordon Beckham, John Danks, josh fields, Tyler Flowers, White Sox

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