American League Central Preview

Written by: Michael Taylor on 3rd April 2009

American League Central Preview | read this item

If you have never been to Seamheads.com, I recommend you visit there – especially if you are a fan of baseball history. The site has been growing by leaps and bounds with it’s outstanding group of writers, headed up by site creator Michael Lynch and numerous other published authors. I am still a part of this site as a contributor, though in a much lesser role than last year when I wrote a weekly fantasy baseball column, but I have just recently taken part in their MLB preview. We split it up into divisional previews, of which now four out of the six have been published. You can read each of them by following the links.

NL East AL East NL Central AL Central

The following has been posted here at Baseball Digest with the permission of Mike Lynch. It is my AL Central piece. I may be a little homer with the Indians projection to win the division, but I do not think that this scenario is too far of a stretch. Anyway, you may read my preview here, but I ask of you to at least check out this site. I believe that you will find yourself with a new bookmark in your browser or with a new subscription for your Google Reader.

2009 Projected Standings

A.L. Central –	W	L	GB
Cleveland Indians	86	76	–
Detroit Tigers	84	78	2.0
Minnesota Twins	81	81	5.0
Chicago White Sox	78	84	8.0
Kansas City Royals	75	87	11.0

Cleveland Indians – The last Cleveland Indian to hit 30 home runs and steal 30 bases was Joe Carter in 1987. The last Indians pitcher to win the Cy Young award, of course, was CC Sabathia in 2007. But in 2008, each of these were accomplished during the same season for the first time in franchise history. Grady Sizemore became just the second Indian to be a 30-30 player, and Cliff Lee became just the third Indians pitcher to win a Cy Young.

Those are two very special achievements from players who still remain on a roster that has been retooled with guys coming back from injuries and with off-season acquisitions to fill holes. The Indians have talent. On top of Sizemore and Lee, Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner are healthy and swinging the bat well as spring comes to a close, Mark DeRosa and Kerry Wood come over from the Cubs to provide veteran leadership on top of their tools as players, Jhonny Peralta is coming into his own offensively and may be the best offensive shortstop in the AL, Fausto Carmona is healthy once again and throwing his hard sinker for strikes, and there is a host of young guys from Kelly Shoppach to Ben Francisco to Asdrubal Cabrera to Shin-Soo Choo who have solidified themselves as major league regulars who have the potential to become even more productive.

There is no shortage of optimism on this team. They scored 805 runs without having any production from their #3 and #4 hitters, Martinez and Hafner, last season. Just think of how many they could score now? Plus the Indians have, on paper, fixed what has been the team’s Achilles heel, the bullpen. Wood gives the Indians their first power-armed closer since the hey-day of Jose Mesa in the mid-‘90s. Complementing him will be one of the best left-handers in baseball Rafael Perez, along with right-hander Jensen Lewis, who went 13 for 13 in saves down the stretch for the Indians to close out ’08.

But there are weaknesses. The Indians rotation has three big question marks after Lee and Carmona. There is hope that Carl Pavano and Anthony Reyes both can stay healthy for a season to eat up some innings. If that can be done, then each should have an opportunity to win a lot of games for Cleveland, but that is still a big if with their recent histories. Beyond that it is mostly prospects with Scott Lewis and David Huff, and guys with some experience like Aaron Laffey, Zach Jackson and Jeremy Sowers. The idea is that the depth will overcome any limitations that may occur, and that somebody will step up. With as many ready arms as they have, you have to think that at least one will.

And with that offense, that is all the Indians need. As long as they can get quality starts on a consistent basis, then on most nights they have the firepower to win ballgames. They may not be among the elite teams in the league, as compared to the AL East, but in this division of parity, the Indians are as primed as any to find themselves playing October baseball.

Detroit Tigers – If there is any one team in this division that could go either way, it is Detroit. The Tigers could either become a newer version of the 1987 club that finished in first place in the AL East after bashing teams into submission with 896 runs scored and 225 home runs, or another version of the 2008 team that disappointed with injuries and poor pitching performances. It is really up in the air, but you have to think that there is no way in the world that this team can again go through such a horrific season with its pitching staff.

Last year the Tigers pitching ranked 12th in the AL with a 4.97 ERA. It included disappointing seasons from Justin Verlander (whose ERA jumped 1.2 runs), Kenny Rogers (whose ERA jumped 1.3 runs), Nate Robertson (whose ERA jumped 1.6 runs), Jeremy Bonderman (who had surgery to repair his shoulder), and Todd Jones (who lost his job and retired). But it did include a pleasant surprise from Armando Galarraga. He will again be counted on to eat up some innings, but he will not be the focus of the rotation as he was for most of 2008. Verlander’s velocity is back, Bonderman is nearing ready to be activated for starts, and the Tigers have added the ever-tempting power-arm of Edwin Jackson from Tampa. And now the news comes out that super-prospect Rick Porcello has made the team. If he can give any amount of innings as the team’s fifth starter, then the Tigers offense may just carry them to a division title.

While they may never score the 1000 runs that was projected last season, the majority of that offense is coming back after scoring a very respectable 821 runs. When you have the all-around threat Curtis Granderson at the top of the lineup, and Placido Polanco moving him over bases for the likes of Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen, you like your chances at repeating that output. What will be interesting however is how the six through nine hitters perform. That will be the difference between this team scoring 800 runs and upwards of 900. With the release of Gary Sheffield, the Tigers will be in possession of a platoon of Jeff Larish and Marcus Thames as the DH. Thames hit 25 HR in 316 at-bats last season while Larish has average 22 home runs per year in the minor leagues. Beyond this, new backstop Gerald Laird will follow them with third baseman Brandon Inge and new shortstop Adam Everett bringing up the bottom. Everett may be one of the most underrated off-season moves because of his poor bat, but what he brings with his glove to help the pitching staff rebound, will be a huge asset.

Another off-season addition is closer Brandon Lyon. He will fill the shoes left by the Todd Jones. Lyon saved 26 games for the Diamondbacks in ’08, compiling a 4.70 ERA despite his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) being a solid 3.84 – but he is not the closer. Jim Leyland recently named Fernando Rodney as the closer to start the season. Rodney briefly filled in this role last year, saving 13 games. Setting up this duo will be the oft-injured Joel Zumaya, Bobby Seay, Juan Rincon, Eddie Bonine, Ryan Perry and Nate Robertson.

The Tigers have the pieces in place to again compete for the playoffs. It will just be dependent upon health, and the return to form of its pitching staff. If that happens, and you have to assume it can’t be any worse than before, then the Tigers should be able to outscore their opponents by enough over the course of the season to find themselves battling the Indians come September.

Minnesota Twins – Ironically enough, it will be 27 years ago to the day on April 6 from when the Twins originally opened the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome with an 11-7 loss to Seattle – and again they will be playing the Mariners. However this time, April 6 will signal in the final season for the Twins at the “Baggie Dome”. It has been a home where they have won their only two World Championships, in 1987 and 1991. Opponents will not be sad to see it go, but the Twins have written so many happy chapters there, that they would love to write just one more before the dome is history.

They enter 2009 looking to finish what they started last year. Finishing ever so close to capturing their fifth division crown since 2002, losing in a tightly contested one-game playoff to the Chicago White Sox. It was a tough loss that stays with the players and serves as a motivational tool for this season.

The roster comes back largely in tact, with third baseman Joe Crede being the only major acquisition of the off-season. He will provide an immediate upgrade at the hot corner with his glove helping a still very young pitching staff, of which the eldest starter is just 27 years old (Scott Baker). Crede – if his back can stay healthy playing on turf – also will give the Twins one more power bat to plug into the middle of a lineup that scored 829 runs last year. But the key to repeating that will be the continued development of second baseman Alexi Casilla and outfielders Carlos Gomez and Denard Span. Each is under the age of 25, and has roughly one season or less of major league experience, some inconsistencies may be expected here. Still though, the heart and soul of the team will remain to be perennial MVP candidates Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. They are what make this team go and why they do score as many runs as they do. And right now, Mauer is down possibly at least the first month of the season with back problems. The Twins can ill-afford to miss him for much time.

As good as the starting pitching potentially could be with the Twins, it finished a very average 15th in the majors in ’08 with a 4.32 ERA. But having a healthy Francisco Liriano should change that. He has the stuff to be an ace on any staff in the league, and behind him are pitchers who work efficiently, allowing their defense to do their jobs. Kevin Slowey and Baker (who is on the 15-day DL with shoulder stiffness) may be two of the most underrated pitchers in the league. But the problem will be getting from these starters to the solid rock at the back-end of the bullpen, Joe Nathan. Pat Neshek is still out this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and Boof Bonser is out after season ending shoulder surgery. The remaining crew beyond this has been largely inconsistent over their careers to be too reliant on.

The Twins are a very stable and smart franchise who is always involved in the pennant race at seasons end. There is no doubt that they play the game the right way, and with the management skills of Ron Gardenhire, they can make another run at a division title again in 2009. But there are some questions that linger after a fairly quiet off-season.

If there are any amount of struggles from the kids, or injuries of the veterans, the Twins may not have enough horses in the barn to help overcome those. Just look back one year to the 2008 Cleveland Indians who were in a similar situation – predicted to contend after a quiet offseason, and with quality pitching – injuries, a poor bullpen, and offensive struggles from the youth early in the season left them on the outside looking in.

Chicago White Sox – Before the season even starts, it looks to be tougher for the White Sox to repeat as champions, not only because of the changes made over the offseason, but because of this stat. The White Sox last season improved upon their 2007 record by 17 games to reach the 89 wins needed to win the Central Division. Over the past 30 years of play when the White Sox have had at least a 10-game bump in the standings, they have followed it up with another increase only once out of seven times. That means they have lost more games the following season six times, and that more than likely, this team is destined to win less than 89 games – which is what most prognosticators seem to believe will happen.

They believe this mostly because of the change in direction that the Sox seem to be taking back toward youth and speed, which is a direction that is becoming popular around the league. The White Sox have had a roster filled with aging veterans who are power hitters for some time now. But their time is soon to be running out, and while the sluggers regress, GM Kenny Williams has had to be creative in ways to supplement those players while changing over the team to compete not only today, but in the future as well.

Thus they have been out scouting overseas to find talent such as Dayan Viciedo and Alexei Ramirez, drafted well with the highly talented Gordon Beckham, and acquired via trade, players like John Danks, Gavin Floyd, and Carlos Quentin just to name a few over recent years. These are the names that will be on the South Side of town for years to come – and why the Sox will continue to hang around in the division races.

However this year may be the hiccup, it looks to be the transition year where they will have to see some bodies play at the major league level to see what they have. In centerfield, can either of Brian Anderson or DeWayne Wise be an answer to a long-standing problem position in the franchise, or can Jayson Nix or Chris Getz handle every day duties at second base, or can Josh Fields handle the bat and make enough contact to utilize his plus power – and can he field his position, or can Alexei Ramirez handle shortstop even though his second base defensive range was below average, or who will be at the top of this lineup to get on base ahead of the big boppers? These are just a few of the questions that need answered, and that’s just with the position players.

But on the positive, this lineup remains packed with power. Returning are five hitters who hit at least 20 home runs in 2008: Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye, Alexei Ramirez, and Carlos Quentin. There will be no shortage of runs being scored by the White Sox – especially in that bandbox ballpark coined “The Cell”.

On the mound, the White Sox have a potentially deep rotation led by perennial team ace, and workhorse, Mark Buehrle. He has now pitched eight straight seasons of having 200 or more innings under his belt. That amount of durability is a tough asset to find, and the White Sox hope that it is rubbing off on their young pitchers. John Danks and Gavin Floyd both broke out and showed what they can do on the mound. Danks is coming back from a 12-9 season with an ERA of 3.32, while Floyd returns from a 17-win season that some believe was a bit on the fortunate side. Regardless, even if either does slip backwards, the Sox have veterans Jose Contreras and Bartolo Colon rounding out the rotation, and awaiting at Triple-A are a few young lefties, Clayton Richard and Jeff Marquez.

Closing out games, the White Sox were roughly league average last season, finishing 16th in the league with a 4.13 ERA, but they do have a closer who finished 89 percent of games. Bobby Jenks finished the season with significantly less strikeouts than he had been known to get, but he pitched smarter to earn his 30 saves. Setting him up will again be the same cast of characters, Matt Thornton, Octavio Dotel, Scott Linebrink, and D.J. Carrasco.

While there is a lot to like on this team, there are significant holes in some key spots, namely at the top of the order, and defensively. Leading off, neither of the candidates even has a career OBP of .300! And defensively, the White Sox finished just 23rd in the league in 2008 – and now they have three new infielders when taking into account Ramirez’ switch to shortstop, which replaces a gold glove candidate Orlando Cabrera. That cannot be good news for Chicago hurlers who induced the ninth most grounders in the majors last season. The White Sox have enough to hang around and do some damage inside of the division, but in the end they will fall short and finish just ahead of the Royals.

Kansas City Royals – General Manager Dayton Moore was recently quoted as to saying that this year’s Kansas City squad has the tools to be the best Royals team since 1994. That wouldn’t be too hard to do. Over these 14 years, the Royals have just one winning season (2003), and one season where they even finished above third place in the division (2nd in ’95, 30.0 GB Cleveland). The organization has gone through seven managers and three general managers to compile a record of 955-1295, good for a .424 winning percentage. This gives them an average seasonal record of 69-93 over a 14-year span!

But the optimism remains. The Royals have increased their win totals for three consecutive years, from 56 in 2005, to 75 in 2008. They believe that there is a light at the end of the tunnel – especially after ending 2008 on a high note, winning 18 of 26 games. To fuel the expectations to compete in division known for its parity, the Royals went out to acquire some veteran leadership to sprinkle around the developing core of talent.

The Royals are a team that always lacks an offensive attack, and 2008 was no exception. Finishing 12th in the AL in runs scored while hitting only 120 home runs as a team, the need for power was obvious. First baseman Mike Jacobs was brought in to provide some middle of the order power to complement the right-handed Jose Guillen. Problem is, aside from their power, neither can consistently get on base. Each had OBP’s of .300 or less in 2008, and this is a trend with the lineup as a whole. There is not a lot of plate discipline. The Royals finished dead last in the major leagues with a BB/K ratio of 0.39, and 12th in the AL with an OBP of .320. This must be improved upon if there will be any dramatic improvement to the offense. With an offense getting on base as little as the Royals, having hitters like Coco Crisp, Mike Aviles, and David DeJesus at the top of the lineup will be key. This trio must have a solid season getting on base to allow the power to come up and create runs. Also key to the offense will be the continued development of the youngsters Alex Gordon and Billy Butler. They show glimpses of what they can be, but by and large they have been mild disappointments thus far. If they can breakthrough this season, it will only extend the Royals lineup and allow them to score enough runs to be competitive.

What the Royals do have however, is a trio of pitchers that many would envy. If you are starting a pitching staff, having Gil Meche and Zack Greinke at the top of the rotation, and Joakim Soria shutting down games is a near ideal situation. Meche and Greinke combined to go a modest 27-21, but with a 3.73 ERA and 366 strikeouts to 129 walks in 412.2 innings. Their record could easily have been five or six games better if they received enough run support. Behind them are question marks. The final three rotation spots last year were responsible for a 30-47 record and 5.31 ERA. Much of that included returnees Kyle Davies, Luke Hochevar and the recently demoted Brian Bannister. Not included in that are rotation possibilities Horacio Ramirez and Sidney Ponson. You do the math. This has to improve.

If it does, then the Royals will be able to utilize on a more consistent basis the nastiest closer in the game, Soria. Not many can duplicate the command of their stuff as he, but getting the ball to him may be tough. The Royals believe that Kyle Farnsworth is still an elite setup man even though he owns a career 4.47 ERA. They’ll just have to hope that newly acquired Juan Cruz doesn’t get burnt out too early to keep someone setting up Soria.

While the Royals seem to continue in the correct direction, it is still hard to see this team making the jump to the next level. There are still too many question marks offensively and past their top-tier pitchers to put much stock into a Royal revival in ‘09.

Topics: AL Central, Preview, Seamheads.com

Peter Alexander says:

April 4, 2009 at 7:15 pm

We all love to make predictions. Anyone can do it. It’s free. If we’re wrong, nobody remembers. I’m glad that you and most of the big name pundits at Yahoo are quite optimistic about the Tribe’s first place chances in 2009. But, personally, as a very long time observer of the Cleveland Indians, I have to admit I have no idea. I feel better than most about the starting rotation. The pitching, in general, seems much stronger than last year. If people like Lewis, Kobayashi and Jackson fail, there’s Sipp, Huff, Chulk and others waiting. Even Hector Rondon, perhaps!

I feel uncertain about the offense– in particular, Hafner, Shoo, Garko and Francisco. Probably, I’m mainly reacting to Spring Training, which every year, I tell myself not to take too seriously. If I’m predicting anything right now, it’s that we’ll be in a lot of low-scoring games, at least in April.

Peter