Why K-Rod and Putz Might Not Matter

Written by: Joe Janish on 25th March 2009

Why K-Rod and Putz Might Not Matter | read this item

Ask anyone why the Mets finished in second place last year and the immediate answer is “the bullpen stunk”. People are quick to point out the 29 blown saves as evidence supporting that claim. Also buying into that theory was the Mets’ front office, who sought to band-aid the problem by acquiring the AL West’s two best closers. Problem solved, right?

Not so fast. Before we assume that J.J. Putz and Francisco Rodriguez slamming the door on innings 8 and 9 are the “final ingredient” for the Mets’ entry into the postseason, let’s continue to follow the data.

Blown Saves: Putz and K-Rod

Question: who blew more saves last year, J.J. Putz or Billy Wagner?
Answer: You may be surprised to find out that Putz blew 8 games, to Wagner’s 7. But Putz was injured in 2008, so we’re willing to give him a pass. Right?

Question: who blew more saves last year, Francisco Rodriguez or Aaron Heilman?
Answer: K-Rod, who blew 7 to Heilman’s 5.
Granted, K-Rod converted 89.8% of his save opportunities, finishing with 62.

But still, 7 blown saves is 7 blown saves. Add Putz’s 8, and the Mets acquired 15 blown saves this offseason — more than half of the 29 they blew in 2008.

Fans will find out quickly that despite their skills, Putz and K-Rod are not “automatic”. In fact, of K-Rod’s 68 innings pitched last year, he went one-two-three only 22 times (FYI, the Royals’ Joakim Soria led all of MLB with 36 “clean” innings). Also of note: K-Rod never pitched more than one full inning in 2008.

Breaking Down the Mets’ 29 Blown Saves

A few numbers to consider regarding the 29 blown saves that supposedly ruined the Mets season:

– 9: the number of games that were WON by the Mets, in games they blew a save
– 13: the number of blown saves that came after Billy Wagner went on the DL
– 11: the number of blown saves that occurred BEFORE THE 8th INNING

That last number is most intriguing. Many people don’t realize that a pitcher can be assigned a blown save as early as the 6th inning. The big deal about getting Putz and K-Rod is that the Mets can now “shorten the game” to 7 innings. However, the Mets will still have to find a way to bridge the gap in the 6th and 7th, a time when more than one-third of their blown saves occurred.

Subtract those 11 “early blown saves” from the 29, and you’re down to 18 blown saves. Subtract the 9 games that were won, and you’re down to 9 blown saves that occurred in the 8th or 9th inning, that resulted in a loss.

Suddenly, the Mets’ bullpen doesn’t look so awful, does it? Now, consider again that Putz and Rodriguez combined for 15 blown saves last year, and ALL of their blown saves occurred in either the 8th or 9th frames, and you decide whether the bullpen is definitely improved over last year.

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Topics: bullpen, Francisco Rodriguez, J.J. Putz, k-rod

Scott G says:

March 25, 2009 at 12:10 pm

Thanks ,I feel so much better now!
Andrew Vazzano says:

March 25, 2009 at 12:47 pm

Dead on, Joe.

I was (and still am) worried about the middle relief. Everyone blew me off, saying if the pitcher can go six innings, all the relief would have to do is the 7th…That may be true, but what if the pitcher (John Maine) has 100 pitches under his belt by the 4th inning…then what?
Mikey says:

March 25, 2009 at 12:56 pm

As a Met fan who actually watched their games last year I can tell you that those numbers do not matter, they blew saves at the most crucial times towards the end of the year and relievers came in and made things worse for the person who came in after them. The Mets needed relievers who throw heat and can get strikeouts and thats what Krod and Putz can do. Plus the psychological factors that present themselves in NY are relevent.
Rob says:

March 25, 2009 at 2:01 pm

This is a typical stat-head article that you see so often now days.
Anyone that knows baseball and watched the Mets last season know that the bullpen was very bad not only blowing saves but ripping the heart out of the whole team. I can see the Mets leading the NL east from start to finish this year the Phillie pitching is bad after Hammels and the Braves, Marlins and Nationals are .500 teams at best. Mr. Janish may want to step out from behind the computer now and then to attend some baseball games, hey here is an idea actual play some ball.
Joe Janish says:

March 25, 2009 at 2:20 pm

Wow, that’s the first time I’ve ever been described as a “stat head” …. usually the SABRnuts are condemning me for being too old school!

Hey actually I watched all 162 of the Mets games last year, and played in another 40 in various semipro leagues, but thanks for the idea!

My point is that everyone has used the blown save as evidence that the Mets’ bullpen was terrible last year, but when you examine that stat, the argument doesn’t hold water. The Mets had more issues with innings 6 and 7 than 8 and 9, so locking up the 8th and 9th with Putz/K-Rod won’t necessarily be a cure-all.

In any case, it wasn’t the bullpen personnel that stunk, it was the management of the relievers that was godawful. Jerry Manuel managed every game like it was the 7th game of the World Series and wore everyone down by mid-July. Unfortunately though the relievers have changed, the leadership did not, so expect similar results.
STEVE says:

March 28, 2009 at 8:24 am

I thought when a team is leading by a certain score in the 6th, 7th, or 8th innning, and the relief pitcher didnt give up the lead, that he receives a “hold”. Save situation in the 6th inning? Cmon!
13 blown saves after Wagner was on the DL was huge. They lost the wild card by 1 game on the last day of the season. If Wagner was not on the DL and converted 2 of those 13 blown save situations, The Mets would have been headed to the playoffs.