2009 Colorado Rockies ZiPS projections reviewed

Written by: Travis Lay on 11th March 2009

2009 Colorado Rockies ZiPS projections reviewed | read this item

On February 10th Baseball Think Factory released their 2009 ZiPS projections for the Rockies.

ZiPS is a computer based projection system that does not factor in playing time at the major league level. So, for example, the Colorado Rockies ZiPS projections has Joe Koshansky hitting 29 home runs in 2009. This isn’t going to happen. It is fun to see what the computer thinks some players will do, the players we know will get full playing time for the Rockies in 2009.

When I opened up the page and checked the Rockies stats there were two players I was most curious to see – Garrett Atkins and Troy Tulowitzki. These are both players that need to have a bounce back year in 2009 for the Rockies to succeed.

For Garrett Atkins ZiPS has him batting .301/.360/.489 for 2009. It has him at 632 at bats which is only significant for his new contract, but they do have him hitting 25 home runs and driving in 112. If Atkins can produce these numbers hitting from the third or fourth spot in the lineup, then the Rockies will certainly be in contention in the NL West in 2009.

ZiPS does factor in past injury history into is projections and it has Troy Tulowitzki only getting in 133 games in 2009. I think that is low, as I have stated before, because he isn’t going to tear a quad again nor will he fight a bat in the hallway to the clubhouse either. Tulo will be much healthier in 2009. In any case ZiPS has a hitting line of .280/.350/.457 for 2009, not bad at all. More importantly it has him scoring 77 runs and driving in 74 runs while hitting 17 home runs. If Tulo bats second in the order in 2009 that sort of production would be incredible…especially in only 133 games. If he plays in 160 games in 2009 maybe we will see him score 100 and drive in 100? That would be awesome.

Moving around the infield ZiPS has Todd Helton playing in 108 games in 2009, which might be realistic considering no one knows how his back will hold up after the surgery. Playing in only 108 games does bring down his home run, RBI and runs totals to 11 HR, 52 RBI and 60 R. If Helton does only play 108 games than I am assume the Rockies will give Ian Stewart at least 54 starts at third base while Atkins fills in for Helton at first. This is a good thing for the Rockies.

Many believe that Brad Hawpe will need to step it up at the plate to cover for the absence of Matt Holliday in the lineup. ZiPS only has Hawpe playing in 146 games, due to Hurdle sitting him against lefties. Even with the low game total he has to perform better than ZiPS is projecting. Hawpe will be batting fourth or fifth this year and if he only has 91 RBIs as ZiPS projects, the Rockies offense will struggle. ZiPS has him hitting 24 home runs and slugging .498. I believe Hawpe hits 30 home runs this year and puts the offense on his back.

The last position we know that Clint Hurdle used a pen to mark his 2009 lineup card is the catcher position. Chris Ianetta will start and be the Rockies 2009 catcher. For some reason ZiPS only has him starting 106 games and I assume this is due to him not starting a full season at catcher yet in the Major Leagues. The crazy thing is, check out these totals in only 106 games – 15 home runs, 21 doubles, 57 RBI and 49 runs. These totals are in only 106 games and he will play in 130 or more games in 2009. This means, if you extrapolate these numbers, he will hit close to 20 home runs, 26 doubles, 75 RBIs and 60 runs. I would take that out of the catcher position from any catcher in MLB right now. Those are fantastic numbers for the guy who has to squat behind the plate every day.

Those are some of the everyday players we know will get a lot of playing time in 2009. Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on how you look at it) for the Rockies second base, centerfield and left field are all up for grabs. I do want to look at two pitchers – Ubaldo Jimenez and Aaron Cook. Both will play a major role for the Rockies in 2009. Let’s just say that ZiPS is not kind to the Rockies pitching.

ZiPS has Jimenez starting 32 games with an ERA of 4.44. Ouch. It has him only pitching in 180 innings which means, on average, he doesn’t last six innings per start. ZiPS figures his record will be 11 – 12 and he will only strike out 153 while walking 102. While I agree that he needs to find his control in 2009 as he had some issues last year walking batters, I have to flat out disagree with this projection. He will average more than six innings per start, he will finish with a record better than .500 and he will strike out more than 153 batters. I say this with the utmost confidence. This is where ZiPS falls short because it cannot predict young pitchers getting better and Jimenez will be better.

The other Rockies pitcher who will hopefully make 30 plus starts in 2009 is Aaron Cook. ZiPS has him starting 29 games this season (taking into his injury history) with an ERA of 4.38 and an 11 – 11 win/loss record. It also has him giving up 221 hits in 2009. Unfortunately 221 hits would be good for Cook. ZiPS projects Cook at 193 innings pitched and he has thrown 190 innings or more only two other times in his career and in those years he gave up 242 hits one year and 236 in the other. We need Cook from the first half of 2008.

While I love looking at projections, discussing previews and talking about how good one team will be or how horrible another will perform nothing is as good as actually playing the games. Right now the Rockies are in the midst of a Spring Training winning streak and they Jimenez back soon from the WBC. Life is good.

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